GM and Ford Poised to Outstrip Tesla in EV Market Share Over the Next Four Years
A recent report has predicted that Tesla's market share in the electric vehicle (EV) market will plummet over the next four years, and that General Motors (GM) and Ford are poised to benefit the most. For years, Tesla has held about 70% of the EV market share, but this is expected to drop to just 11% by 2026. John Murphy, the Bank of America analyst behind the annual Car Wars report, which analyses the auto industry and predicts which companies are on a winning path, expects that 40% of nameplates will be EVs by the 2026 model year. Murphy predicts that GM, the Korean automakers, and European automakers will be the most aggressive in pushing EVs, and that GM and Ford will see their piece of the EV market jump to 15% each, which will be higher than Tesla's.
Murphy blames Tesla's CEO Elon Musk for the company's loss of market share. Tesla largely operated in a vacuum for 10 years, with little competition, but this is now changing as a number of new and excellent EVs are set to enter the market. Musk has also admitted that he cannot keep up with demand, with production shutdowns and launch delays such as the Cybertruck, which was supposed to arrive in 2021 but may not hit its 2023 target either. According to Murphy, Musk has shown "tremendous hubris" and has made major mistakes that have set the stage for a massive drop in market share.
Tesla has a large and loyal fanbase, but this may not be enough to sustain its current market share. The number of fans with blinders who do not see Tesla's faults or the attributes of competing vehicles is not enough, and the fanbase is shrinking. Moreover, Tesla is losing some buyers who have run out of patience with quality issues and aging models, and some who have had enough of Musk's public and sometimes offensive or political comments and stunts. Musk's focus is not solely on the auto business, and his distractions, such as buying Twitter, are examples of this.
In terms of how automakers will fare overall in the next four years, the report predicts that Ford will benefit from having the newest showroom, as fresh product leads to greater market share and profitability. Ford is set to replace models representing 95% of its 2022 volume by 2026. Toyota will replace 93%, the Koreans will overhaul 92%, and GM will update 90%. Nissan and Stellantis will fare less well, at 71% and 66%, respectively.
In conclusion, the report suggests that GM and Ford are set to gain the most market share in the EV market over the next four years, and that Tesla's market share will plummet. While Tesla has had a loyal fanbase, this may not be enough to sustain its current market share, and the company is losing some buyers due to quality issues, aging models, and Musk's controversial comments and distractions.